[Aggie57]

kbb estimates I can get between $51-59k for my leased car for a private sale, $48-55k on trade in. Its payoff amount is currently $57k.

I'm 17/39 the way through the lease, presumably just past the steep initial portion of the depreciation curve. At this rate, I'll be pretty close to having some positive equity in the car for whenever the P*3 or EX90 comes in that I might trade it in (or sell on private market) for.

In either case, Polestar Financial isn't taking a bath on my lease, at least not yet.

These numbers seem pretty well in line with usual car value trends. It just isn't in line with the insanely outlying used car depreciation curves that we saw during the pandemic.


Edit: Meanwhile, over in Tesla-land, talk about some depreciation now....

Tesla cuts prices in U.S., Germany in pivot to drive sales

Tesla has cut prices on its top-selling electric vehicles in the United States and Germany, the automaker's website showed, extending a new strategy of aggressive discounting after missing Wall Street estimates for fourth quarter deliveries.

www.reuters.com

I've spent a good portion of my career in vehicle valuation analysis/residual development. KBB, while having high consumer name recognition, is almost always far off in terms of its trade in values to what dealers might actually give you.

I highly doubt you can get a trade in value anywhere close to even $48K currently. Would be surprised if you can get significantly above $40K right now.

Given your background do you see this as something particular to Polestars or across other brands as well? I'm also wondering if the federal rebate changes have had an influence broadly across the EV used car market?

 

[JRRF]

I've spent a good portion of my career in vehicle valuation analysis/residual development. KBB, while having high consumer name recognition, is almost always far off in terms of its trade in values to what dealers might actually give you.

I highly doubt you can get a trade in value anywhere close to even $48K currently. Would be surprised if you can get significantly above $40K right now.

I don't know, they might give you 48 while they pad the price of the new car by 10k 😂

 

[polerad]

I've spent a good portion of my career in vehicle valuation analysis/residual development. KBB, while having high consumer name recognition, is almost always far off in terms of its trade in values to what dealers might actually give you.

I highly doubt you can get a trade in value anywhere close to even $48K currently. Would be surprised if you can get significantly above $40K right now.

In the recent times before the current market cratering I could rely on getting near the middle of the trade in range of kbb from their “instant cash offer” or higher than that from carvana/vroom. But that’s based on my few times experience helping friends/family turn over their cars. I guess it’s an unknown what that means now with the current market - I didn’t click on the kbb instant cash offer link.

in either case, if folks do trade in/sell their cars, please post the rough numbers if you’re willing.

 

[Tacoenthusiast]

Doesn't say much good about the p2 if people are worrying about getting rid of them already

 

[Aggie57]

Doesn't say much good about the p2 if people are worrying about getting rid of them already

They’ve been out for a couple of years so not that surprising. Happens with many products, early adopters get in and move on, Especially with fast developing tech like EV’s.

 

[JRRF]

Especially with fast developing tech like EV’s.

There is always going to be something new and exciting to buy in this arena for some time to come.

 

[P2TO]

Hopefully this is good news for folks wanting to buy a used P2 that came off a lease. Making EV's more affordable to get in will help the industry. Just sucks for those of us who purchased and want to trade up.

Yeah, I have eyes on a P4, but people’s experiences trading in their P2s for a P3 later this year will probably determine whether I go that route and stick with Polestar or move on to another brand.

 

[JRRF]

stick with Polestar or move on to another brand.

I think the deltas going forward are unlikely to be very different. The market is readjusting and all brands are going to be impacted.

 

[P2TO]

I think the deltas going forward are unlikely to be very different. The market is readjusting and all brands are going to be impacted.

Oh for sure. I guess I mean if Polestar tries to lowball me on my trade-in or not make it more worth my while to stay in their ecosystem, I'll go elsewhere. We don't really have a strong sense of how they approach this yet, since there hasn't been large scale trade-ins or trade-ups yet. But 2023 is when earlier P2s will begin coming off lease and a new Polestar option becomes available.

 

[Tony S]

For those who don’t lease and keep their cars for longer time, most of this anguish is largely in the background.

 

[Tacoenthusiast]

Things have been so squirrelly lately with the supply chain shortages I think people quickly forgot what normal depreciation looks like

The way things have been for the last 2 years is not normal and any buying or selling transactions in that timeframe shouldn't be used to determine if a brand is good or bad for pricing. Anything you sold in recent didn't hold high value for any reason other than a shortage of new car availability.

 

[JRRF]

Things have been so squirrelly lately with the supply chain shortages I think people quickly forgot what normal depreciation looks like

The way things have been for the last 2 years is not normal and any buying or selling transactions in that timeframe shouldn't be used to determine if a brand is good or bad for pricing. Anything you sold in recent didn't hold high value for any reason other than a shortage of new car availability.

And by the same token, new car deals should start the materialize again.

 

[JRRF]

For those who don’t lease and keep their cars for longer time, most of this anguish is largely in the background.

And of course this has always been the case for all types of cars. It's almost always more expensive to lease, the benefit being you're always driving a new car.

 

[Aggie57]

A relevant reference point (and this was filmed before Tesla reduced new car prices):

 

[voxel]

I wish I could rent a Kona (or similar -- like P2) for $190/week.
View attachment 21295
🙄

Yup. It was an insane deal I couldn’t pass up. They truly did not want it. Said a Tesla owner whose car needed body work had it booked (the day I picked up the P2) via insurance and that person declined it. I rented it twice and received the same “get this car off the lot” attitude from multiple employees. I was happy to oblige,

 

[voxel]

Buying a p2 for track use sounds like a horrible idea. Just get a brz or Miata for way less money and get a car actually suited for track

You can take a Toyota sienna to the track too, doesn't mean it's a good idea 😂

I track all my EVs regardless if it’s a good idea or not. I don’t want a Miata or Boxster or Z06 like everybody else has. I tracked my MINI electric and had a blast with that.

Now that the Model 3 Performance is basically high 40s… it’s tempting to pick one up but I’d rather have a P2 Performance at $40K. Maybe I will buy that P2 I rented when Enterprise dumps it lol.

 

[JRRF]

Yup. It was an insane deal I couldn’t pass up. They truly did not want it. Said a Tesla owner whose car needed body work had it booked (the day I picked up the P2) via insurance and that person declined it. I rented it twice and received the same “get this car off the lot” attitude from multiple employees. I was happy to oblige,
View attachment 21355
View attachment 21356

Something still smells fishy here. Because a buddy of mine runs the IT shop at Avis/Budget and he said he all EVs rent at their premium/elite level. He also said that the vast majority of them are in CA and a Polestar probably wound up in Texas because someone did a one way rental. Otherwise there's little EV rental demand there.

 

[voxel]

Something still smells fishy here. Because a buddy of mine runs the IT shop at Avis/Budget and he said he all EVs rent at their premium/elite level. He also said that the vast majority of them are in CA and a Polestar probably wound up in Texas because someone did a one way rental. Otherwise there's little EV rental demand there.

Hertz Austin had numerous Teslas that were $100ish a day. Turo also had a few Tesla available around where I stayed.

As for Enterprise, they had two P2s at that location. I saw about 5 Polestars (might have been the same 2-3) while driving around and almost no other EVs other than Teslas. I think Polestar has a location in Austin too.

I was generally surprised at the low number of EVs in Austin. In Florida, my guess is 2% of all cars. Every minute you will see an EV.

 

[KanedaKid]

I have been considering the economic mechanics involved when an original owner sells their car. Firstly they have to be willing to sell the car for the price a private buyer or dealer is willing to pay. If the valuation of the vehicle in their mind is too low they may choose to hold onto the car. If this decision is made by enough people the number of vehicles available in the used market would shrink and up would go the pricing.
Based on the current interest rates being offered for a new vehicle, cost increase of vehicles for many reasons including inflation, why buy a new vehicle if you don't need one. I did a "Build" on the BMW website for a new iX. I picked the middle option with the 111kW battery which is comparable to the Polestar 3. I really had a hard time understanding how the interest on the loan was calculated. Financing from BMW is 7.99% on the vehicle but the total borrowing cost for this $105,000 vehicle is $26,000 over the term. WTF?!! I guess BMW is taking 8% for every year? Why the **** would I ever take that deal?!

 

[Tacoenthusiast]

Something still smells fishy here. Because a buddy of mine runs the IT shop at Avis/Budget and he said he all EVs rent at their premium/elite level. He also said that the vast majority of them are in CA and a Polestar probably wound up in Texas because someone did a one way rental. Otherwise there's little EV rental demand there.

My experience is similar I travel and rent cars for work a lot and the EV options are always so expensive I can't get corporate to pay for it

Generally seems to be 3-4 times more expensive for the EV rental