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Summary
We have July month sales numbers from Norway, Sweden and The Netherlands. Polestar 2 (“Volvo”) outsold Tesla Model 3.
Tesla Model 3 was down 94% compared to one year ago, in those countries. Yes, that’s not a typo.
Tesla Model 3 also was outsold by Porsche Taycan (5:1), Mercedes EQC (13:1) and Audi eTron (17:1).
Mind you, we’re not even talking about Tesla Model X or S here. We’re talking about the Model 3!
This is just the beginning of Tesla’s market share troubles in Europe. The competition in Europe is eating into Tesla from all sides.
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NOTE: A version of this article was first published on or about Aug. 4, 2020, on my Seeking Alpha Marketplace site.
July month sales numbers from European countries are starting to come in, and things are not looking good for Tesla (TSLA), to put it mildly. As of this writing, we have July month unit sales results from some of the strongest electric vehicle (EV) markets in Europe, in particular, Norway, Sweden and The Netherlands.
Let’s first deal with the newcomer on the European EV scene, the Polestar 2. What's the Polestar 2, you might ask?
Polestar is a joint venture between Geely and Volvo Cars. Volvo Cars is in turn substantially owned by Geely, so - Volvo Cars and Geely are all practically the same, sort of like Kia and Hyundai are the same in reality. The marketing organization is different, as are some design elements.
The Polestar 2 is not the first made-in-China car to be sold on U.S. soil. Volvo itself had two cars made in China that were sold in the U.S. a few years ago. General Motors had two cars, made in China, sold in the U.S. in the last few years.
But today we are talking about three of the first countries in Europe to report July month unit sales results, and they happen to be three of the most important EV markets in Europe. So how did the Polestar 2 do when compared to the EV darling, the Tesla Model 3?
Europe July | Tesla Model 3 | Polestar 2 |
Norway | 22 | 17 |
Sweden | 5 | 50 |
Netherlands | 31 | 15 |
TOTAL | 58 | 82 |
Data source: EV registration statistics for The Netherlands, Norway and Spain and Nyregistreringar
As you can see in the table above, two things are true:
- The absolute numbers for both cars are ridiculously small.
- Polestar 2 outsold the Tesla Model 3.
Model 3 | July 2020 | July 2019 | change |
Norway | 22 | 308 | -93% |
Sweden | 5 | 148 | -97% |
Netherlands | 31 | 590 | -95% |
TOTAL | 58 | 1046 | -94% |
Data source: EV registration statistics for The Netherlands, Norway and Spain and Nyregistreringar
As you can see in the table above, we are looking at an impressive growth company here: Minus 94%. In comparison, this is a lot worse than AOL’s dial-up modem subscriber decline two decades ago. Tesla’s “growth” in these geographies is negative and is rapidly approaching oblivion.
But wait, there’s more! Tesla’s more expensive cars, the Model X and Model S, also have fully electric competitors from Audi, Mercedes and Porsche, among others. How does the less expensive Model 3 stack up against those more expensive EVs?
Europe July | Tesla Model 3 | Audi eTron | Mercedes EQC | Porsche Taycan |
Norway | 22 | 698 | 655 | 105 |
Sweden | 5 | 138 | 72 | 88 |
Netherlands | 31 | 172 | 53 | 83 |
TOTAL | 58 | 1008 | 780 | 276 |
Data source: EV registration statistics for The Netherlands, Norway and Spain and Nyregistreringar
As you can see in the table above, it’s not exactly a close call. Porsche Taycan outsold the Tesla Model 3 by approximately 5:1, the Mercedes EQC 13:1 and the Audi eTron 17:1. And yes, the Audi eTron includes the Sportback versions (50 and 55) for obvious reasons.
I’m not sure that these numbers can get any worse for Tesla, so I fully expect Tesla’s Model 3 sales numbers in Europe to improve from the July month fiasco. Still, it’s also not clear that Tesla hasn’t lost the sales plot forever in Europe. Polestar, Audi, Mercedes, Porsche and many others will continue to eat into the Model 3’s flesh like hyenas feasting on a wildebeest.
Tesla is valued like a growth company with dominant market share. Here are the Tesla Model 3 sales numbers in Europe overall (not just the three countries discussed above):
Europe | Tesla Model 3 | Total EV sales | Tesla M3 % |
Jan 2019 | 0 | 33431 | 0% |
Feb 2019 | 3757 | 32671 | 11% |
Mar 2019 | 15771 | 59741 | 26% |
Apr 2019 | 3738 | 37111 | 10% |
May 2019 | 2489 | 37399 | 7% |
Jun 2019 | 11604 | 47384 | 24% |
Jul 2019 | 3478 | 35838 | 10% |
Aug 2019 | 5286 | 35278 | 15% |
Sep 2019 | 17490 | 58662 | 30% |
Oct 2019 | 1767 | 48219 | 4% |
Nov 2019 | 7380 | 55033 | 13% |
Dec 2019 | 22137 | 77248 | 29% |
Jan 2020 | 1517 | 74663 | 2% |
Feb 2020 | 3589 | 69538 | 5% |
Mar 2020 | 16121 | 84349 | 19% |
Apr 2020 | 2461 | 31500 | 8% |
May 2020 | 2278 | 46805 | 5% |
June 2020 | 7224 | 92880 | 8% |
Data source: EV Sales
As you can see in the table above, 2020 has been a disaster for Tesla. EV market share has ranged from 2% to 8% in all months except for one. We don’t have the July numbers for all of Europe yet, obviously, but that will come in about three weeks from now. I expect Tesla’s July numbers in Europe to be very, very low, even by these standards.
So what about the world overall for Tesla - Model 3 as well as total?
Global | Tesla Model 3 | Tesla total | Total EV sales | Tesla M3 % | Tesla total % |
Jan 2019 | 7277 | 10340 | 153695 | 5% | 7% |
Feb 2019 | 10436 | 14050 | 111541 | 9% | 13% |
Mar 2019 | 33187 | 38084 | 224335 | 15% | 17% |
Apr 2019 | 17464 | 20823 | 166200 | 11% | 13% |
May 2019 | 17965 | 23156 | 179270 | 10% | 13% |
Jun 2019 | 39632 | 48788 | 264591 | 15% | 18% |
Jul 2019 | 19057 | 23284 | 148144 | 13% | 16% |
Aug 2019 | 21336 | 26758 | 157696 | 14% | 17% |
Sep 2019 | 39201 | 49821 | 183393 | 21% | 27% |
Oct 2019 | 13359 | 16565 | 149552 | 9% | 11% |
Nov 2019 | 25878 | 31337 | 176547 | 15% | 18% |
Dec 2019 | 53742 | 63148 | 279214 | 19% | 23% |
Jan 2020 | 10013 | 12779 | 150613 | 7% | 8% |
Feb 2020 | 13661 | 16276 | 116170 | 12% | 14% |
Mar 2020 | 48788 | 60131 | 192380 | 25% | 31% |
Apr 2020 | 11761 | 14793 | 110274 | 11% | 13% |
May 2020 | 20847 | 24607 | 144600 | 14% | 17% |
Jun 2020 | 35854 | 49765 | 229894 | 16% | 22% |
Data source: EV Sales
As you can see in the table above, the global sales numbers look a bit better for Tesla. Why? China and North America. Actually, it’s all China, but we don’t have great numbers to break them down at this point. In any case, the extreme weakness in Europe is balanced by Tesla’s strong growth in China during the first half of 2020.
Conclusion: Polestar 2 beats Tesla Model 3
This is just an example. While we can see that Audi eTron, Mercedes EQC and Porsche Taycan beat the Tesla Model 3 in three of the most important countries in Europe, we now add yet another new car to that list: Polestar 2, which is made in China but exported globally.
It’s just more hyena joining the dinner party, feasting off Tesla’s EV market share. In a couple of years, there won’t be much left. Just like AOL’s dial-up modem business two decades ago, when broadband (cable modems and DSL) overtook the home Internet access market.